Course Description

 

In today's highly volatile environment, estimating future costs and revenues is critical for justifying investment decisions!

Gain state-of-the-art forecasting tools and modeling techniques that will help you analyze financial data...predict revenues and costs...assess the risk inherent in your forecasts...effectively report the forecasting results to management...and improve corporate decision making.

Course Objective

 

·         Creating a framework for financial forecasting

·         Identifying data patterns and applying time series modeling techniques

·         Modeling and forecasting your key business drivers

·         Simulating a complete financial forecast: Drilling down to the bottom line

·         Dealing with uncertainty

·         Weighing approaches to interest rate risk modeling

·         Communicating the forecast to management Data visualization techniques

Who Should attend?

 

CFOs, vice presidents of finance, financial managers and analysts, controllers and treasurers, directors of planning and corporate and business development, business unit managers, operations analysts, budget managers and analysts.

Course Outline

 

Learning Objectives

 

·         Make More Meaningful and Complete Assumptions

·         Build More Realistic Forecasting Models

·         Understand the Risks Inherent in Your Business

·         Use the Appropriate Measures in Selecting Your Forecasting Models

 

Objectives of Financial Forecasting

·         Understand the Critical Role of the Finance Function in Developing Forecasting Models

·         Understand Which Situations in Business Require Financial Forecasts

 

Framework for Financial Forecasting

·         Determine the Need to Migrate to a More Formal Approach to Financial Forecasting

·         Understand the Major Approaches to Preparing Financial Forecasts

·         Understand and Apply the Criteria for Assessing Various Forecasting Models

·         Implement a Process for Selecting Appropriate Forecast Models

 

Getting Started: The Role of Assumptions in Making Financial Forecasts

·         Understand the Role of Assumptions in Making Financial Forecasts

·         Understand the Process of Deriving Assumptions

·         Understand and Apply the Process of Moving from Beliefs to Formal Forecasting Model Assumptions

 

Indentifying Data Patterns: Exploring Data Analysis in Financial Forecasting

·         Differntiate between Time-series Data and Cross-sectional Data for Purposes of Data Analyses

·         Break Time-series Data into Seasonal and Trend Components

·         Use Appropriate Tools to Measure Basic Patterns in Your Data

·         Recognize the Data Requirements Inherent in the Analysis Tools

·         Choose from Alternative Methods to Handle Data "Outliers"

 

Applying Time Series Modeling Techniques to Your Data

·         Develop Time Series Models

·         Perform Time Series Analysis on your Business Data

·         Use the Moving Average Method to Track Business Performance

·         Use Smoothing Methods to Track Business History

·         Combine Trend and Seasonality Components in Your Forecasts

·         Determine Which Time Series Models to Select to Forecast Your Business Situation

 

Modeling and Forecasting Your Key Business Drivers

·         Identify Those Business Situations That Might Be Candidates for a Regression Analysis

·         Use Regression Models for Either Prediction or Estimation of the Relationships among Several Key Variables and a Target Variable

·         Evaluate the Quality of a Regression Model

·         Indentify the Pitfalls of Misusing Regression Models

·         Take Regression Models to the "What If" Stage of Exploring Different Scenarios

·         Understand the Key Elements of Formulating a Multiple Regression Model

·         Build a Multiple Regression Model

·         Validate a Multiple Regression Model

·         Explain to Management the Results and Meaningfulness of a Multiple Regression Model

 

Simulation of a Complete Financial Forecast: Dealing with Uncertainty

·         Understand When to Use a Simulation-based Approach to Develop Your Financial Forecast

·         Perform a Risk Analysis-based Forecast

·         Understand How to Communicate to Management a Risk Analysis-based Forecast

·         Transform a Spreadsheet Forecast into a Risk Analysis-based Forecast

·         Integrate Assumptions and Risk Estimates in Financial Forecasts

·         Decide on Whether a Risk Analysis Forecast Is a More Valuable Approach Than Other Methods

 

Issues in Interest Rate Risk Models

·         Understand the Need of Business to Analyze Interest Rate Risk

·         Understand the Various Modeling Approaches to Analyze Interest Rate Risk

·         Understand the Forecasting Techniques Used to Measure Interest Rate Risk Exposures

·         Understand the Output of the Models That Quantify the Interest Rate Risk for an Organization

·         Recognize the Applications of Interest Rate-sensitive Models

 

Communicating the Forecast to Top Management: Data Visualization

·         Understand the Proper Role of Internal and External Data in Forecasts

·         Understand the Power and Potential of Data Visualization Techniques in the Analysis of Business Data

·         Understand the Difference between Push versus Pull Technology in Providing Data for Financial Forecasts

·         Understand the Sources of Data Visualization Tools

·         Present and Report Financial Forecasts to Management in Terms That They Can Understand

 

New Directions in Financial Forecasting

·         Understand the Issues Involving Large Amounts of Unstructured Data

·         Understand the Emerging Technology of Chaos Theory in Forecasting

·         Assess the Role of Business Intelligence Tools in Preparing Financial Forecasts

·         Assess the Potential of Neural Networks in Preparing Financial Forecasts