Course Introduction

 With increased volatility of oil and gas prices, changing regulations, (geo)political conflicts and new technologies, planning and decision making in the oil and gas industries requires the use of multiple scenarios and real option valuation techniques to maximize potential upside and minimize potential downside. Over the last four decades the scenario planning has become the planning methodology of choice by all major players in the field. Featuring the latest artificial intelligence and dynamic planning tools, this training course will enable you to help your company to outsmart the competition.

 

   Objectives

 

By the end of this training course, participants will be able to:

• Analyze relevant economic, technological, legal and social trends using big data analysis.
• Develop multiple realistic scenarios for your company.
• Create scenarios for planning and decision making purposes.
• Facilitate scenario planning workshops.
• Present to board level decision makers with impact.

Outline 

 

      Day (1) : History and Theory of Scenario Planning

• Overview of the course
• Introductions
• History of Scenario planning
• Theory of Scenario based strategy
• Trend analyses using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data
• Horizon scanning and early warning systems

 Day (2) : Exploring the World of Oil & Gas

• Case studies and examples
• Defining predetermined elements and key uncertainties
• Deep dive: Modelling
• Developing Scenario frameworks
• Facilitating Scenario workshops

   Day (3) : Developing Scenarios

• Steps in developing scenarios and the Power of Stories
• Creating narratives and timelines
• Quantification of scenarios
• Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Material
• Presenting Scenarios to decision makers, executives and stakeholders

 

Day (4): Using Scenarios (Real Options)

• Introduction to Real Options Theory
• Call and put options in up- and downstream investments
• Stress testing and wind tunneling existing strategies
• Developing real options to minimize downside risk and maximize upside potential
• Quantification of options using a binominal approach
• Using Options Theory to valuate investments and support decision making

 Day (5): Strategy, Planning and Taking it Home

• Linking scenarios and options to strategy, planning and budgeting processes
• Transferring the methodology to your existing strategy and planning process
• Essential soft skills, personal and team competences
• Road mapping next steps
• Evaluation of the course

 Training Method

A highly interactive combination of lecture and discussion sessions will be managed to maximize the amount and quality of information, knowledge, and experience transfer. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. Course material through power point equipped with necessary animation, learning videos, and general discussion to provide the participant with full understanding concerning the subject course will be provided.

Flip chart – Lectures – Practical situations – Video – PowerPoint – Presentation –  style coach- led discussions – activities – Exercises - Quiz - Case study - Assessment.